South America

Bank exchange rates are you being ripped off by your bank

Economists in Brazil have reduced their growth forecasts for 2014 from 2.10 to 2.01. The next 'Bric' economy to explode hasn't come to fruition as one might have expected. The World cup next year? This should provide some much needed core infrastructure development for the country and an influx of foreign money at the tills. The economists outlook differs to that of the Foreign Minister, Guido Montega. He is of the opinion that the economy is on a gradual upwards curve with investment increasing and that we should see an improvement in public sector accounts. Why? After all the stimulus measures of recent years to combat the 'global financial crisis' including quite hefty tax breaks to stimulate industry the Government is slowly recouping more tax from corporations and individuals. Fiscally, they're trying to rectify the situation to create sustainable growth. The Exchange rate? Well, that will of course be closely monitored, as it always is.It is a balancing act for them to stimulate business/industry by keeping the rate low whilst also being mindful of inflation. Too low and they have another problem on their hands.

This week we have the announcement from the Federal Reserve where 'tapering' of QE will be discussed. Should they go ahead and scale back the 85 Billion or so dollars that are in the system then we may well indeed see some USD strength. As BRL is correlated to the US Dollar this could have a significant impact on BRL and GBP/BRL through cross pair volatility. If you would like to discuss a rate and appropriate levels for GBP/BRL please contact me directly. We will make sure we provide you with the best rate at the most appropriate time. As many of you know it is quite complicated to get funds into and out of Brazil. We aim to make the process straightforward for you. I would expect GBP/BRL to remain relatively range bound in the run up to Thursday and the Federal reserve press conference.

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