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Euro – A lot of Hot Air

Better than expected European services PMI numbers failed to lift the common currency against the majors yesterday, as markets remained jittery ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting today. The upbeat retail sales and the in line GDP numbers also failed to build a positive bias in favour of the single currency. The January Euro zone retail sales print surpassed market expectations, while services PMIs across major Euro zone economies also improved.

However, during the latter half of yesterday’s trading session, the weather-affected weak US domestic economic data somewhat lifted investors’ sentiment towards the euro.

Meanwhile, the Euro is range bound against its major peers in today’s trading session. With the ECB President, Mario Draghi, indicating that the policy meeting will be crucial, expectations of the ECB President hinting at the possibility of adopting looser monetary policy measures in the future have strengthened in recent days. While the ECB is unlikely to push interest rates down further , it may loosen lending conditions to combat the consistently low inflation.

Key Economic Events

UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
UK Halifax House Prices
UK New Car Registrations
US Factory Orders
US Initial Jobless Claims
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision
Eurozone ECB's Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision

Interbank Exchange Rates (09:00)
GBP 1.2080 1.6758 13.005 1.8384
EUR 0.8279 1.3874 10.766 1.5220
USD 0.5970 0.7205 7.7605 1.0969

1.8414 17.777 10.004 10.703 1.4721
1.5244 14.716 8.2902 8.8609 1.2188
1.0988 10.607 5.9710 6.3870 0.8785

Currency Support Levels
GBP/USD Support 1.6688 1.6640 1.6596
GBP/EUR Support 1.2029 1.1984 1.1907
EUR/USD Support 1.3762 1.3665 1.3611

Currency Resistance Levels
GBP/USD Resistance 1.6780 1.6824 1.6872
GBP/EUR Resistance 1.2151 1.2228 1.2273
EUR/USD Resistance 1.3913 1.3967 1.4064

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