Focus on the pound

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The Pound has continued to perform well against most of the major currencies. This week will provide proof of the UK’s climb out of economic strife or show evidence that further attention is required to an ailing recovery. The Pound has moved above €1.21 and appears comfortable at these levels. For anyone needing to buy Sterling for a house purchase this week may prove vital in setting the trend for the next month.

Although technically Sterling is well into overbought territory, strong data this week could see it push on to €1.22 and above especially as further pressure on Spanish bond yields fuel weaker appetite to hold the Euro.

Last week the Pound hit its highest level in 19 months against a basket of currencies weighted according to their relative importance for UK trade. The Bank of England have encouraged a weaker Pound since the 2008 crash to drive exports and any mention of this in today’s meeting minutes may signal they won’t stand for further Sterling strength.

Data releases this week that will affect Sterling’s price


UK CPI. Inflation reading came in at 3.5% as expected – Supportive for Sterling as many analysts expected a slight increase.


Minutes from Bank of England MPC – Will they mention the Pounds current strength and its effect on exports? This could cap

Claimant Count - Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

Overall Unemployment Rate - Higher than 8.4% and Pound faces pressure, lower and market will support the Pound


Retail Sales – An up lift is expected after last readings dire -0.8% in UK consumer spending. If so Pound will likely strengthen.

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