Debt Exposure for Bulgaria and Romania

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Foreign Exchange Overnight/Morning Ranges:

Rates EUR/USD 1.3837-1.4043

Rates GBP/USD 1.5780-1.5915

Rates GBP/EUR 1.1320-1.1429

There has been a surge in costs to insuring exposure to debt with European states such as Bulgaria and Romania which are bearing the brunt at the moment, as up to a fifth of the banking system in these countries is estimated to be under Greek control.

Romanian and Bulgaria's five-year credit default swaps jumped almost 30 bps to 290 bps and 269 bps respectively. While making Hungary vulnerable due to its high debt ratios, also saw CDS jump by 10 bps, according to data from Markit

The EUR/USD rout continued in Asia to its lowest level in four months. The threat of Euro Zone debt contagion spreading to Italy continued to grip the market, with a pledge by EU leaders to enhance the scope and flexibility of the bloc’s emergency funding mechanism (EFSF) providing only minimal support.

The German v Italian 10-year spread jumped to over 3.00% Monday – its highest since the EUR’s inception. Also further press reports today on the inevitability that Greece will default. Sterling needs to hold above € 1.1350 to technically target above 1.15 levels. The USD stronger across a broad range of currencies, next technical support level is £/$ 1.5700 level.

This morning’s weaker UK consumer price inflation saw the Pound sold from its opening levels. There has been Asian Central Bank interest also to buy Euros (rumoured to be for Euro debt purchases).

EUR/USD currently 1.3942. Support 1.3900, resistance 1.4200.

GBP/USD currently 1.5812. Support 1.5700, resistance 1.6000.

GBP/EUR currently 1.1330. Support 1.1150, resistance 1.1350.

Oil $ 94.32 Gold $ 1551

Dow -1.2% FTSE 1.03% Nikkei 1.43%

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Debt Exposure for Bulgaria and Romania

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