UK GDP to be revised higher

Free Compare Money Transfer Voucher

Today’s revision to the UK GDP figure for Q2 should bring the number back closer to reality from the slightly ridiculous -0.7% that was the primary estimate. Revisions higher are due following better than expected construction and manufacturing output in June, while retail spending figures seem to have beaten expectations as well.

The revision higher will not erase the 0.7% fall but should bring the number back towards -0.5% which, while still poor, can more readily be explained away by the Jubilee Bank Holiday and the poor weather.

Our tracking puts GDP slightly higher at -0.3% in Q2, a figure that is justified by improvements in the jobs market and the robustness of business surveys such as the PMIs. This improvement will be not be forthcoming today but may do so in next month’s number. We don’t anticipate too much movement in GBP if the number is revised to -0.5%; it is largely priced in and we may instead see sterling slip before the number as traders look for disappointment.

We have seen more comment following the Federal Reserve minutes over the past 24hrs. The President of the St. Louis Fed said that the minutes were “stale” and that the data had improved since then. He also said that a “gigantic” policy response was not needed and expectations may have got ahead of themselves through the summer. However, Chicago Fed Chair Chuck Evans took the other side of the argument in a media interview this morning, arguing that “there’s a lot of reasons to do more” to help the US economy.

The main news in a quiet Asian session is once again from the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD has become stronger in recent weeks following the grind higher in risk assets post-Draghi. Yesterday we heard from an Australian government official that there were concerns over the strength of the country’s mining sector and AUD slipped back on the comments.

RBA Governor Steven seemed to be happy with AUD at the moment although it is probably trading slightly above where it should be at the moment.

Yesterday’s EZ news was typically slow, although the most recent PMI numbers seem to once again emphasise that the Eurozone is heading back into recession in Q3. EURUSD went on a bit of a run towards 1.26 on stops yesterday but has retreated back overnight.

Apart from the UK GDP figure at 09.30 the data calendar is quiet and we anticipate a sideways trade session into the long weekend.

Have a great one and we will be back on Tuesday

Indicative Rates Sell Buy

GBPEUR 1.2637 1.2664
GBPUSD 1.5841 1.5866
EURUSD 1.2519 1.2543
GBPJPY 124.53 124.80
GBPAUD 1.5251 1.5277
GBPNZD 1.9564 1.9594
GBPCAD 1.5751 1.5781
NZDUSD 0.8092 0.8109
GBPZAR 13.25 13.30
USDZAR 8.3600 8.3885
GBPPLN 5.1713 5.1978
EURJPY 98.45 98.71

Please note these rates are “interbank” rates ie they indicate where the market is currently trading and are not indicative of the rates offered. Rates are dependent on amount transacted. It is important to remember that foreign exchange rates fluctuate all the time.

Company Details

UK GDP to be revised higher

Get a quick quote

Open Account with Currencies Direct

Currencies Direct are located at:
51 Moorgate,, Greater London,, , EC2 R6BH, United Kingdom

Get a Quick Quote

Newsletter Signup to CMT

Sign up to our foreign exchange newsletter to receive news updates directly by email

Compare Money Transfer will not Share your details!

Bank Exchange Rates Comparison

High St Bank Exchange Rate

All Rights Reserved: Copyright 2006 - 2018 Compare Money Transfer Limited offering FCA Regulated Suppliers - 34 New House, 67-68 Hatton Garden, London, EC1N 8JY. +44 (0) 843 357 4882