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Yesterday was probably the strangest day I’ve ever experienced in the FX markets. The intervention on the part of the SNB to peg the franc to a set price of 1.20 against the euro sent markets haywire. But only for a few hours. Many had presupposed that the weakening of the franc would be mirrored by a strengthening of the euro; while this happened in the first instance it was quickly followed by euro selling with market participants still anxious over the Greek debt/default situation and the European political situation.

The IMF mission to Greece has been suspended in recent days and this has led to fears, as we reported on Monday, that the next tranche of IMF funds may not be paid out at the end of September. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that the mission “be resumed and it must come to a positive conclusion” for the tranche to reach the Greeks. He also reaffirmed the belief that longer term financial stability mechanisms need to be put in place to prevent future crises.

Also adding to the political atmosphere is the Italian Senate voting sometime today on an amended austerity package that now includes increases in VAT to 21% and a 3% addition to the income tax rate for those earning more than EUR500k per year. Any wobble from this by politicians, or protests outside the parliament will see the political risk on euro increase and the single currency remain in the crosshairs.

There was some good news from the US in the news from its services sector that showed a surprise jump in its ISM. This was unable to stop US equities from slipping sharply lower however as one good data point does not save the world economy.

While today is likely to be the quietest session of the week that is not saying much and we do expect some interesting moves. The German supreme court is expected to vote as to whether the bailout plans are actually legal under German law; if they come out against it could trigger a constitutional crisis in the heart of the Eurozone. They will also vote on whether to give the Bundestag more lien over bailout packages and a potential debt ceiling.

We also have UK industrial and manufacturing production at 09.30 and similar figures from Germany at 11am.

Indicative Rates Sell Buy
GBPEUR 1.1344 1.1372
GBPUSD 1.5973 1.5992
EURUSD 1.4061 1.4083
GBPJPY 123.39 123.67
GBPAUD 1.5070 1.5096
GBPNZD 1.9295 1.9322
GBPCAD 1.5776 1.5807
NZDUSD 0.8269 0.8288
GBPZAR 11.34 11.39
USDZAR 7.0947 7.1308
GBPPLN 4.7767 4.8066
EURJPY 108.60 108.86

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