Second day of Greek currency negotiations

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The lack of structured data from the world’s economies meant that yesterday was a day when, once again, European politicians and their views were the main drivers of price action. Unfortunately that leads to a fairly volatile state of affairs with the euro once again in the crosshairs.

The Syriza party that came second in Sunday’s polls in Greece still has 48hrs to form a coalition but looks to be getting nowhere and, as such, another round of elections are now forecasted for June 17th. The problem is that the Greek government must have met certain budget requirements by June 30th or further bailout funding will not be forthcoming. It could be as early as 6 weeks from now that Greece has to fall on its sword.

Obviously those who have paid the cash over to Greece in the past are trying to make sure that any new government in Athens does not renege on previous deals. ECB board member Asmussen said that there is “ no alternative for Greece” other than implementing austerity while also saying that he “expects France to implement the fiscal pact unchanged”. That old saying of never assuming springs very readily to mind.

EUR- USD has moved below 1.30 and has stayed there for the past 24hrs and hopes are that the 1.30-1.34 range that it has inhabited since December of last year is finally over. Likewise traders will be hoping that GBPEUR can base at levels around 1.2450 and establish a new range between there and 1.30 although that will be a tall order given the still fragile dynamics of the UK economy.

Likewise in GBP-USD, it has been very quiet given the machinations across the channel and we think traders wait on details from tomorrow’s Bank of England and Industrial Production numbers before pushing it one way or tother. It could be dragged lower through the day if EUR-USD remains weak of course.

Spain will remain in focus as well today as fears over their banking system continue to rattle round the market. Spanish government yields have continued to track higher alongside Spanish default insurance while banking shares in particular had a rather hairy day yesterday.

The data calendar is once again quiet today.

Indicative Rates Sell Buy
GBPEUR 1.2416 1.2444
GBPUSD 1.6133 1.6157
EURUSD 1.2978 1.3001
GBPJPY 128.71 128.98
GBPAUD 1.6011 1.6049
GBPNZD 2.0535 2.0561
GBPCAD 1.6149 1.6178
NZDUSD 0.7848 0.7869
GBPZAR 12.78 12.83
USDZAR 7.9175 7.9498
GBPPLN 5.2128 5.2403
EURJPY 103.50 103.67

Please note these rates are “interbank” rates ie they indicate where the market is currently trading and are not indicative of the rates offered. Rates are dependent on amount transacted. It is important to remember that foreign exchange rates fluctuate all the time. The rate you will receive will depend on the amount and currency you require.

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