Euro Retraces

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With the probability of a Greek default likely within the next 5 years soaring to 86%, eurozone investors have remained on edge this week. Speaking at a meeting in Luxembourg to discuss Greek bailout funds Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said the European Stability Mechanism will not have preferred creditor status, removing a potential reluctance among investors to lend to countries such as Ireland and Portugal which could make it easier for them to re-enter the markets.
This ‘Soothing’ of fears sparked a euro rally yesterday against the Dollar and the Pound and allowed investors to focus on once again on an expected ECB interest rate rise next month.
Outside of Greece, Germany are expected to print poor ZEW figures this morning which could dampen the mood for the euro and see overnight gains eroded.E

Sterling turned positive against the dollar on Monday, tracking a bounce in the euro/dollar exchange rate after comments from a top euro zone policymaker calmed immediate fears about stability in the region.
The pound, which has remained range bound against both EUR and USD for several weeks now, has held onto gains made overnight against the dollar, and may gain against the euro on expected poor ZEW figures out this morning.

With the US calendar fairly light on data and the fed outlook remaining dovish, Dollar trading has been left relatively at the mercy of the Eurozone events. An increase in risk appetite sparked by Junker’s comments yesterday has paved the way for a turn-around in Euro Dollar trading, with the single currency now regaining ground, lost recently due to Greece fears.

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