Back to life, back to reality

mar bonnin palmer

So the Olympics is over and the inquest in to the economic viability of the games will begin in earnest. The Bank of England predicted earlier in the year that the bounce to output could be as much as 1% although their predictive track record is specked, not glistening, with gold.

Following the -0.7% provisional growth figure for Q2 we had expected revisions and they look like they are starting to come through. The construction industry was the main laggard once again but revised figures published on Friday pointed to a decline of 3.9% against the 5.0% estimate in the provisional numbers.

This would cause an upward revision of around 0.1% and alongside the upward revisions seen courtesy of the manufacturing output numbers earlier in the week puts GDP closer to -0.5%. Granted this is still poor but every little helps.

Casting our eye towards Europe we see a rather strange sight; a Greek debt auction. This is an auction of short-term money to hope to tide things over before the disbursement of further funding is agreed by the Troika who are still in country. The weekend saw some typical headlines about Germany cutting Greece off in the event of further non-compliance with the deficit reduction program but there was nothing new to these.

That being said we do get the latest round of EU GDP numbers tomorrow and with them, further confirmation of the squeeze on the core European nations and not simply the periphery. Tomorrow also sees the latest inflation numbers from the UK following the Inflation Report last week. Some commodity prices have slipped higher in the past month and so we believe that analysts looking for a continued dip will be disappointed.

Today’s calendar is dead and currencies are once again range bound starting the morning session. There is little reason to expect this to change throughout the day as well.

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