Currency exchange rates hit 1.24 level

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shocking bond auction in Italy yesterday with a yield above 6%

Another day another level gone. We pushed through the 1.24 level yesterday as EUR/USD hit just under my forecasted target level of 1.2380. Will there be any let up for the EUR? Short to medium term, not likely. As I’ve said before, we’ll see bounces on an intraday basis and if traders are brave enough to go long EUR/USD then so be it. You may see 40/50 pip moves upwards however the downtrend still remains. Europe is nowhere near reaching anything close to an answer. All talk has been of Spain and Greece. Has everyone forgotten about Italy? It goes on and on like Ariston. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain. Italy next? It’s possible. I think everyone forgot we had a shocking bond auction in Italy yesterday with a yield above 6%. Is it on target for the dreaded level of 7% where Greece reached? I think so and no matter the positive noises made, I just don’t believe the comments anymore. Expect more headlines on Italy in the coming weeks.

1.2150 the next level to target? It’s looking inevitable on EUR/USD. Why? Take your pick on any of a multitude of reasons. Spain is lurching towards disaster with it becoming highly probable they’ll need financial aid of some kind. Greece, well, enough said. Data out across the whole of the EMU continues to disappoint in general.

The EUR bounced briefly yesterday on the back of news from the EU commission that it “could envisage direct recapitalization of banks by Euro zone permanent bailout fund (ESM). All sounds positive however it’d need a change in the ESM treaty to get the policy through. So it’s non news in effect. No development, empty comments.

GBP/USD? We lost the 1.55 handle and dropped down to around 1.5480. We’ll be back to 1.52 by end of June. I see further continued USD strength and with Sterling struggling to reach any upside the trend is downwards on this pair. If you’re a buyer of USD it may be an idea to look to cover off some of your exposure now if you can. Likewise, on GBP/EUR, toppish levels are 1.25 so contact to discuss utilising market orders to achieve highs on the market.

The market is gearing up for the NFP figure tomorrow. We have the ADP report (precursor to the non farm figure) and we also have Q1 GDP Annualised out of the US this afternoon. Expect on volatility on Dollar crosses this afternoon.

If you have any questions please do let me know

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Another day another level gone.

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