As politicians return, so do Greek issues

The week starts with the focus shifting back to a country we haven’t spoken about in a little bit; Greece. European politicians back from summer holidays have continued to butt heads over the prospect of further funding for the country against the imposition of further austerity.   The ECB/EU/IMF troika is in country at the [...]

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Risk grinds higher

With most European politicians still sunning themselves by the Mediterranean the market has returned to basing its movements on the fundamental data that arises from the world economy and not the thoughts of some Cabinet minister. Unfortunately this data is as confused as I’ve seen it in my time in markets.   We wrote yesterday [...]

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Confused data keeps markets in ranges

The slow grind higher and towards the next monetary policy decisions from the world’s central banks continued with the deserved lack of fanfare yesterday. Volume on global share indices remained particularly low with volatility lower on FX markets for the most part. Sterling had a little run yesterday morning following the latest jobs numbers. Unemployment [...]

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UK CPI, EU growth fails to enliven markets

Although the data calendar was the busiest for a while yesterday the net result was a rather lacklustre trading session as volumes remain very low. Global equity markets finished roughly unchanged, while EURUSD, GBPUSD and GBPEUR all flirted with each other for a while before agreeing to keep everything as is. The data was a [...]

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Rising oil prices add to monetary policy woes

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bg6LWhju6s Olympic withdrawal permeated into the financial markets yesterday as things never really left the starting blocks. The extravagant closing ceremony witnessed by millions around the world resulted in many sleepy heads, it would appear, turning up to work. Equities posted lowest liquidity levels to date this year and FX traded within fairly conservative band [...]

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Back to life, back to reality

So the Olympics is over and the inquest in to the economic viability of the games will begin in earnest. The Bank of England predicted earlier in the year that the bounce to output could be as much as 1% although their predictive track record is specked, not glistening, with gold.   Following the -0.7% [...]

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Chinese trade data shock

Following a lacklustre European session yesterday the attention once again switched to China and possibly the most important data out of the world’s workshop; trade data.   Yesterday’s inflation and retail sales numbers confirmed that the consumption side of the Chinese economy still needs help and this will likely come from moves within the PBOC. [...]

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No rate cut signal sends GBP higher

Although yesterday’s Quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England was one of the more “by the numbers” releases, questions fielded afterwards by Mervyn King added some colour to the way that the MPC is thinking about how it deals with the economic turmoil the UK economy finds itself in.   Growth was downgraded as [...]

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Bank of England to lower growth and inflation

As the next month is likely to be characterised by the will and movements of the world’s central banks, hints as to their future expectations on economic performance are key to formulating a likely policy outlook. Today’s Bank of England Inflation Report will give the Bank’s latest assessment of the UK economy and up-to-date forecasts [...]

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GBP – EUR hits 1m low as Draghi rally extends

The “Draghi rally” following Thursday’s initial disappointment continued yesterday with GBPEUR falling to a one-month low and EURUSD pressuring the 1.24s. This has been driven by falling yields on European periphery debt and in particular the short-term debt of Spain.   We look at the shorter-term money because it gives us a picture of how [...]

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