Sterling rallies as market bets against further UK quantitative easing

The recent release of the MPC minutes has given the pound a major boost. Adam Posen, the policymaker who has so often stood alone as the Bank of England’s arch dove during his 19-month tenure, has seemingly abandoned his quest for further quantitative easing. Two votes became one then, with only David Miles seeing fit [...]

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April Currency Report

A key theme in the past month has been the converging growth trends we are seeing between the US and the slowing economies of Europe and China. The US economic recovery continues to gather pace with improvements in the labour market being particularly impressive, whilst the eurozone appears to have entered what may be another [...]

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Strong US data fails to impress Bernanke

Bernanke unimpressed by US upturn The upturn we have seen in the US economy has peppered the financial headlines over the past few months. The US grew at an annualized pace of 3.0% in the further quarter of 2011, a figure which could well be revised upwards on Thursday. When the first quarter 2012 GDP [...]

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MPC minutes and UK annual budget comes into view

Bouncing back from last week’s poor UK unemployment figures and Fitch’s downgrade to the UK’s rating outlook, the pound has made an excellent start to the week. Taken against a basket of 13 major currencies, GBP is trading at its strongest level in over a year. However, this morning’s release of the minutes from the [...]

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Dollar struggling to sustain the gains that data would indicate

The US dollar has recently posted ten and eighteen-day low against both the euro and the pound respectively. This belies the excellent growth data that has been surfacing from the US throughout March. The highlights from last week included some strong US retail sales numbers, a positive US bank stress test result and some further [...]

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Outlook for NOK / JPY

NOK/JPY The Norwegian krone has made an extremely impressive start to 2012. It was the top performing currency in February, which is largely due to a combination of domestic economic strength and soaring oil prices. Amid worrying developments in Iran, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at what is more than a three [...]

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Outlooks for EUR / JPY

EUR/JPY The yen has weakened off by around 11.5% against the euro in the past two months. This is largely attributable to the convergence of performance between the US and Japan economies and monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. The Japanese economy remains a key underperformer among the major global economies; it contracted by [...]

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Dollar to come back into favour

The euro and other risky currencies continued on their uptrend in February, spurred on by the ongoing impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) mid-December LTRO (cheap loan offering), further improvements to the US economic recovery and the emergence of a Greek bailout agreement. The ECB’s cheap loans have ensured that credit conditions in Europe [...]

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January’s strong UK retail sales figures triggers hopes for Q1

January’s growth figure for UK retail sales came in at 0.9%, which is a staggeringly strong showing and well above forecasts of a 0.3% contraction. To put it into perspective, this figure represents the strongest monthly performance since last April’s Royal Wedding bonanza. On the back of December’s strong retail sales growth, this represents an [...]

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Chaos in Greece but euro firm

Greek parliament votes on austerity measures to pave way for bailout Greece is unfortunately in a state of utter turmoil; riots, 21% unemployment, recession and political division. However, as far as the markets are concerned the weekend’s events represent a step in the right direction. The Greek parliament passed an austerity package necessary to receive [...]

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