GBP/EUR is still flirting with the 1.20 level. I don’t see too much more upside on this pair. If you’re a buyer of EUR it may be beneficial to secure some of your exposure now. Yes, there may be a slight uptick on GBP/EUR through a EUR/USD downwards move however as has often been the case in the past Sterling drops a lot quicker than it goes up and it wouldn’t surprise me to see us back in the 1.18’s again on this pair before too long.
Where does cable go from here? We’re trading in a range at the moment between the late 1.57’s and early 1.59’s. We’ve had a downward move this morning on the pair with the Halifax House Prices falling 0.5% MoM in February.
We were trading just under the 1.35 level on Wednesday and we’re now down to 1.32 on EUR/USD. Short term, I’d expect to see the EUR regain some of the ground that has been lost over the last few trading sessions and we’ll be back above the 1.33/1.34 level on a ‘successful’ completion of the Greek Debt Swap this week even though the appetite of private bondholders to take part is open to debate at the moment. Long term however, I think EUR/USD will move down as no matter how many EU officials make favourable comments negative sentiment remains towards the single currency. Draghi has even stated that “economic conditions remain fragile” and with the upcoming French elections I see political movements becoming more of a driver in the markets. This coupled with ongoing issues in Spain (it’s likely the economy will contract for the third time out of five years, unemployment is standing at a European high of 23.5%, export growth is dwindling, domestic demand is falling due to unemployment and imposed Government austerity) indicates to me that we’ll see a weakening of the single currency.
We’re light in terms of data today with GDP (QoQ) and (YoY) (Q4) out of the EMU likely to provide some volatility on EUR/USD. Thursday this week will be the day that the markets will be paying particular attention to with the ECB interest rate decision, the BoE Interest rate decision, what will the BoE do in terms of QE this month and we also have the all important Greek debt swap deadline. This is followed by Non Farm figures out of the US on Friday rounding off a busy end of week.
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