A busy day for UK data starts with DCLG House Price Index at 9:30am which is expected to show a rise to 0.9% from the previous release of -1.6%.
Also at 9.30 all the various inflation components are released, Retail price Index, Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index, perhaps the key figure here is CPI which is expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.3% last month. Inflation is hotly tipped to touch 5% in the near term future before falling back down. A rise in inflation today will relight the argument to raise in interest rates in the UIK and could subsequently help the pound.
10.00am sees Eurozone preliminary GDP figures for Q2, 0.3% is the expected figure.
The US also has a busy day with, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Capacity Utilization and most importantly at 2.15pm Industrial Production.
New Zealand Producer Price Index is released at 11.45pm and both parts, input and output are expected to fall.
IN THE UK
The pound reaches a session high of $1.6409 against a broadly weaker dollar.
BoE policy member David Miles is quoted as saying the UK economic recovery was still ‘fragile’ and it was possible that more stimulus from QE may be necessary at some point.
Investors will now watch the Bank of England minutes released on Wednesday to see if any other policy members joined Adam Posen in voting for further QE.
This morning the pound falls against the dollar as short term speculative accounts are sold ahead of UK inflation data.
The dollar weakens after manufacturing data falls to -7.72 against expectations of 0.80.
The euro gains across the board after it was led by a jump in the Swiss franc over speculation Switzerland’s central bank may announce further measures to stem the francs strength.
P come under fire after their downgrade of the US, American have proven since to be world beaters undermining S&P’s mathematical assumptions.
The euro gains over 1.5% against the dollar reaching a session high of 1.4476 up from 1.4263.
The Aussie Dollar falls overnight as the minutes from the central bank’s policy meeting show the chances increase of an Australian interest rate cut as a result of the recent global turmoil
Fears in the SNB continue this morning as the Swiss Franc starts to appreciate again seeing gains of 1.3% yesterday, Swiss ministers and bankers meet to discuss drastic action.
This morning German GDP data falls to a disappointing 0.1% against a consensus figure of 0.5%. The German economy is the linchpin in the Eurozone and signs of the German economy stalling will worry many investors, the resulting news weakens the euro this morning,
DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR
Current Spot Rates (9.00am)
USD EUR AUD CAD CHF DKK NOK HKD SEK ZAR JPY
GBP 1.6338 1.1351 1.5665 1.6070 1.2797 8.4575 8.9206 12.7300 10.52 11.67 125.575
USD 1.4393 0.9588 0.9836 0.7833 5.1766 5.4600 7.79 6.44 7.14 76.861
EUR 0.6948 1.3801 1.4157 1.1274 7.4509 7.8589 11.21 9.27 10.28 110.629
Key Support and Resistance Levels
GBPUSD 1.5935 1.6000 1.6090 1.6475 1.6550 1.6745
GBPEUR 1.0929 1.1013 1.1261 1.1416 1.1561 1.1614
EURUSD 1.3945 1.4260 1.4400 1.4450 1.4575 1.4700
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