US Nonfarm Payrolls Forex Market Reaction
Worldwide currencies to look out for
- US Nonfarm payrolls numbers are expected to be down on the previous month and will be released at 1.30pm today this is expected to be after ADP employment earlier in the week failed to meet expectations the markets may see this as US dollar negative.
- US Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from last month and will be released at 1.30.
- UK PMI construction is released this morning, like manufacturing yesterday, the figure is expected to fall as conditions toughen. A figure of 52.6 is expected but if the published figure is lower GBP could be forced down.
- Eurozone Producer Price Index is forecasted to be positive, which may see a positive for the Euro and will be released at 10.00 am today.
ELSEWHERE
- German PMI manufacturing data for August disappointed and weakened the Euro.
- Manufacturing in Italy and France contracted in August, highlighting the importance of Germany’s economy in Europe.
- USD helped by surprisingly positive Unit Labor Costs figure (an indicator of trends in production costs, share prices and inflation).
- U.S. ISM manufacturing figure pushed the USD further forward as the 50.6 figure is read as bullish within the market.
- Negative U.S. construction spending figures released failed to hurt USD/GBP, which hit a day high of 1.6131.
- More suggestions in the press this morning that the ECB may have to reverse the recent interest rate hikes to stimulate the larger EU economies that are beginning to show cracks.
IN THE UK
- Sterling falls to 3 week lows against the U.S. Dollar.
- GBP hurt by soft housing data as Nationwide declare a 0.2% fall in Aug from July.
- BCC downgrades its forecast for UK economic growth to 1.1%.
- UK PMI manufacturing shrinks in August, remaining below the key 50 mark confirming contraction and adding to economic worries.
- Pound see gains versus the euro as the single currency suffers from its own poor economic data releases.
| Current Spot Rates (9.30am) | |||||||||||
| USD | EUR | AUD | CAD | CHF | DKK | NOK | HKD | SEK | ZAR | JPY | |
| GBP | 1.6195 | 1.1370 | 1.5136 | 1.5832 | 1.2742 | 8.4724 | 8.7566 | 12.6080 | 10.38 | 11.32 | 124.426 |
| USD | 1.4237 | 0.9346 | 0.9776 | 0.7868 | 5.2315 | 5.4070 | 7.79 | 6.41 | 6.99 | 76.830 | |
| EUR | 0.7021 | 1.3312 | 1.3924 | 1.1207 | 7.4515 | 7.7015 | 11.09 | 9.13 | 9.96 | 109.434 | |
| Key Support and Resistance Levels | |||||||
| Support | Resistance | ||||||
| GBPUSD | 1.5594 | 1.6062 | 1.6121 | 1.6248 | 1.6316 | 1.6375 | |
| GBPEUR | 1.1220 | 1.1253 | 1.1300 | 1.1380 | 1.1413 | 1.1460 | |
| EURUSD | 1.4037 | 1.4131 | 1.4194 | 1.4351 | 1.4445 | 1.4508 | |
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