NAHB Housing Market Index is released

Posted on Monday, August 15th, 2011 at 3:40 pm in News by The Agent.

What is happening in the currency markets world wide

No significant European data released today but across the pound announcements start in the US with Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30pm which is expected to show a slight rise to 0.80 in August.

New Motor Sales in released in Canada at 1.30pm, expected to show a comfortable rise to 2.4% from – 6.1% previously.

Main data today is US Net Long Term TIC Flow, the figure is significant as it corresponds to the trade deficit, given the debt problems in the US, cash flows in and out of the US are important and this months figure is expected to rise to $30.4bn for June.

NAHB Housing Market Index is released at 3.00 and consensus is for the figure to remain on hold at 15.

UK Currency markets

GBP closes the week up verus the US dollar but well within the weeks range at 1.635.
Sterling finished a very hectic and important week on the front foot despite the ongoing concerns in the UK economy.
The pound enjoyed gains as risk aversion subsided, most notably against the Swiss franc that moved from a low of 1.16 last week to 1.30 this morning.
The FTSE manages to finish Friday up on the day finishing off a bad week for the stock markets on a slight high.
Rightmove survey released this morning show that UK house prices have fallen for a second month in a row, the figure applies to asking prices rather than sale prices and is said to be attributed to the recent fall in the stock market.
My own thoughts are that the figures are slightly in accurate because of the school holidays.

Worldwide Currency Markets

US consumer sentiment falls to lowest level in recent history but in contrast July retail sales increase by 0.5%.
The weakened consumer confidence figures combined with a more riskier approach helped EURUSD to rise to €1.4283 with more gains this morning.
German media over the weekend spoke of the German government coming round to the idea of Eurobonds, a radical idea to help fix the Eurozone debt problems.
Importantly in Italy, the government approve a plan to cut the budget deficit by €45.5bn by cutting government spending and increasing taxes in a bid to try to convince investors that Italy is still a safe option to invest in. Italy had been asked by the ECB’s to organise plans to reduce the deficit before agreeing to buy bonds.
Japan’s economy contracted less than expected in Q2, Finance Minister Noda expects the economy to start expanding this quarter and also pledged to take ‘bold action’ to curb yen gains. They are weary that the global slowdown combined with the strong yen will hurt Japanese exports and subsequently the recovery.

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)
	USD	EUR	AUD	CAD	CHF	DKK	NOK	HKD	SEK	ZAR	JPY
GBP	1.6291	1.1390	1.5643	1.6100	1.2946	8.4835	8.9560	12.6980	10.56	11.65	125.151
USD		1.4305	0.9602	0.9883	0.7947	5.2075	5.4975	7.79	6.48	7.15	76.822
EUR	0.6992		1.3734	1.4135	1.1366	7.4482	7.8630	11.15	9.27	10.22	109.878

Key Support and Resistance Levels
	Support			Resistance
GBPUSD	1.5935	1.6000	1.6090	1.6475	1.6550	1.6745
GBPEUR	1.0929	1.1013	1.1261	1.1416	1.1561	1.1614
EURUSD	1.3875	1.3945	1.4050	1.4400	1.4450	1.4700

DCLG House Price Index shows a rise to 0.9% » « France’s AAA rating looks under threat

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