Real concerns are beginning to grow in the US over unemployment. The level of unemployment has been over 9% since April 2009 and nearly 45% of unemployed Americans have been out of work for more than 6 months. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has found himself in an awkward position in the last few weeks which looks set to continue as many analysts are forecasting that fiscal policy tightening may stunt growth in the US over the next few years. The Dollar has had a recent run of strength as investors have moved back to the Dollar as it has gained some of its safe haven status back from the Swiss Franc. As time moves on the economic situation only points towards us seeing a slightly weaker Dollar which is something I can’t see the US being disappointed about at all.
As we predicted earlier in the week we are starting to see a small turnaround in the fortunes of the Euro. This has been aided by news that Germany will pass a vote on expanding the bailout fund for the debt-stricken Eurozone. This should give the Euro a short term boost and lift it back to levels of around 1.3700 against the USD. Longer term I still see this being short lived and feel a move back below 1.34/1.35 is very probable over the next month.
Since the last Bank of England minutes were released and the pages were filled with doom and gloom Sterling really seems to be an innocent bystander in recent events and the movement in Sterling seems to be driven by the data and news released about other countries currencies. If we are to see further weakness in the Euro over the next month Sterling should benefit from this and a possible move back to the late 1.15’s early 1.16’s is not out of the question.
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