Italy’s focus now moves to forming a new Government to implement tough austerity measures after Berlusconi’s offer to resign. His offer to resign came after he failed to gain an absolute majority on a routine parliamentary ballot. Markets dictated his resignation to a degree as Italian bond yields came close to the 7% level and Berlusconi’s lacklustre approach to ‘doing’ rather than talking of ‘doing’. Will Italy be better off in a new administration? It’s hard to tell at this stage.
The EUR this morning has dropped some 50 pips against the US Dollar on early European trading. The EUR is proving remarkably resilient however a large correction is due. When this is likely to be is hard to call. GBP has been strong against the EUR although as mentioned yesterday it is finding a lot of resistance at the 1.17 level. Please contact to discuss placing market orders at this level as we may just hit the 1.17 level then see a retracement.
It’s another day and another Greek tragedy. Lucas Papademos was the favourite to be installed to head up the new Government however this is now in doubt. Various media reports have cited disagreements over how he wanted to change the economic team and some of his plans were denounced by both parties. It’s now emerged that Vassilios Skouris is likely to be installed, an EU Court of Justice President. It can’t be stressed highly enough how important it is for a new coalition to be in place. A Coalition has to be in place to secure the bailout and the release of emergency funds from the IMF and EU to avoid the threat of bankruptcy as debt payments are due next month. This is fundamental to them retaining their place in the EU.
GBP/USD has been trading between the 1.60 and 1.61 levels more on USD weakness than anything else. These levels are attractive to buy USD in current market conditions. However, GBP has plummeted this morning against the USD on gloomy UK trade balance data. The UK trade deficit for September soared to 9.8 billion against the expected market focus of 8.0 billion. GBP has gained ground against the EUR after an initial downward move right after the release of the data.
After this mornings release of the UK trade balance data we’re pretty thin on the ground with any economic releases today. The market will move on commentary and sentiment today. The markets will be looking at tomorrow as we have a large amount of releases and data to digest. We have German CPI, the ECB monthly report, BoE asset purchase facility and the BoE interest rate decision.
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