Firstly, let me start this new week by wishing all of our American clients and partners a happy Independence Day for today. Yes, it’s the 4th of July already and another Wimbledon has now passed us by without a British winner. With the US national holiday today I would expect to see markets fairly subdued with a reduced amount of volatility. With the excitement over the Greek situation taking the limelight over the past few weeks it now looks to be coming to the only conclusion it really could have come to – another bailout being agreed.
The latest Greek debacle had temporarily put the Euro under pressure but in the current market where sentiment seems to dominate, the so called good news that Greece are certain to receive another bailout added to the fact that the Greek parliament has passed the austerity measures that were ratified by the IMF has really done little for me. The best way I can describe the situation would be that of a person in great debt and on the brink of going bankrupt going down the pub for a celebratory drink after managing to do a ‘balance transfer’ onto a new credit card. As we all know though, at some point that debt is going to rear its ugly head again just on a larger scale. For me personally I have to say I am very disappointed in the whole situation and I am left wondering “Is there any longevity in the Euro?”
Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s have managed to halt the Euros rapid rise to recovery today after announcing that a debt rollover plan for Greece would place the country in selective default. This news may slow down the Euro as it progresses against the Dollar and Sterling and could see small losses for the single currency. Longer term I can only see further debit issues for the Euro and think that in time it will significantly weaken leading to the demise of the single currency. Unfortunately, with the high levels of debt in both the UK and US at present neither country will want to see its currency strengthen significantly, and this will only benefit the Euro in its current crisis.
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