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Although Sterling came under pressure early yesterday morning before the Q2 GDP data was released it has since managed to bounce back. Data released showed that the UK has grown by 0.2% in the last quarter which although is very sluggish is better than a negative reading. Many factors have been blamed for the low reading such as having an additional bank holiday for the Royal Wedding, sunny days, the Olympics and the Japanese Tsunami. The UK is experiencing its slower ever recovery in three quarters of a century but going forward with further problems in the Eurozone expected it looks as though Sterling is building itself a firm base to push on from.

The Indian unit stood at Rs 44.84 per dollar in early morning activity on June 14th, responding to strong share performance in the country, Commodity Online reports.

Its movement was in line with other regional currencies, with Chinese consumer inflation figures revealed to be in line with forecasts helping to push up Asian markets.

Exchange rates for the rupee could be affected still further when the Reserve Bank of India makes a decision on the nation’s interest rate on Thursday (June 16th).

According to Reuters, gains were also witnessed on Tuesday morning by the South African rand, which climbed to a session high against the dollar of 6.74, boosted by strong global performance among currencies linked to commodities.

The news source suggested positive data from China has also helped to push up the unit, with analysts preparing to examine the Reserve Bank’s latest annual report when it is published later today.

If you are a journalist or news editor and think we can assist you in developing your next story, learn more about the Foreign Exchange industry or if you have any marketing and public relations related questions please contact.

Further bad news for the Eurozone look set to come as its biggest economy Germany has now started to feel the knock on effects of wallet tightening. German GDP has slowed down significantly in the second quarter and this looks set to be the case across the rest of the Eurozone. It seems that the Eurozone as a whole is flirting with the possibility of seeing a new economic slump as spending slows across the region.

At present it looks as though many currency pairs are in a state of ‘no man’s land’ and everyone is looking to see if there will be any breakaway movements. We still firmly believe that GBP/EUR will improve over the coming months and we will soon be entering a period of seeing a small but significant drop in the Euros value. Safe havens are most definitely the weapon of choice at present so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Swiss Franc have another bout of strength over the coming weeks.

The coming months will be a testing time for Europe as they desperately try and prevent any further cracks from appearing in the single currency and hold it together. The longer time goes on the debt crisis seems to deepen further and further and it seems inevitable that the Euro will at least have to make some severe changes to maintain its existence.

The Bank of England meet today for their monthly interest rate and policy meeting. We are expecting no change to interest rates and monetary policy after last month’s increase to the quantitative easing programme. For all intents and purposes Sterling is holding its own extremely well and further gains against the Euro and Dollar look like they could be on the horizon so now looks a good time to look at Limit Orders to take advantage of higher exchange rates

We’ve had a small retracement on the pair back to the 1.2920 level on the back of inflation figures released by Germany this morning. CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY. Both above expectations and pretty much unchanged
from March.  We have Spanish CPI out in a while with above expectation figures expected.

With talks rumbling on in Greece (anyone else getting bored talking/hearing about Greece?) with the possibility of another contest being held in June, this could threaten the austerity ‘pledges’ that they said would be implemented. It wouldn’t surprise me if Greece started sulking like a little child and said “it’s my ball, I’m going home” and ripped up the terms of the two bailouts that were negotiated, thus forcing the exit from the single currency union. It all seems to have an air of inevitably about it.

Obviously the powers that be are adamant that Greece should remain. Angela Merkel gave her support to Greece in her speech at the Bundestag on Thursday and also somewhat relaxed her stance on austerity with the French election of the pro-growth Francois Hollande meaning they’ll need to meet somewhere in the middle. With two contrasting views on the way to tackle the debt crisis a solution seems even further away than it once was.  I don’t
hold out much hope for the PASOK party in Greece being able to build a cabinet after the New Democracy and Left Coalition failed. Elections in June will be the only option left and I can see things start to unravel in the summer for Greece (on the plus side, if you’re thinking of Greek island hopping or sailing it should be a little cheaper this year. Who knows, you may be buying your Ouzo in a new drachma)

Spain has its own difficulties however talk of them potentially requiring a bailout may be premature. Indeed, the nationalisation of the fourth largest bank, Bankia, doesn’t inspire confidence. Their public finances are fragile and bailing out the banking sector isn’t viable so unless the Banks raise more funds to cover off mainly risky property assets (Spain’s property market has been one of the most hardest hit) then it may then be the case that the Government have to go cap in hand. More likely however is that the EU will put some other ‘bailout package’ together, lump all the bad debts together and stick in a ‘Spanish asset bad bank’ or some such name. Another case
of “we’ll deal with that one later.

GBP/USD is again flirting with the lows breaking through the 1.61 briefly. For once GBP/USD is being stubborn and sticking to range bound trading. I expect ‘cable’ to come off with a figure of 1.58 my target level. However,
for now we’ll be stuck between 1.6050 and 1.62.

GBP/EUR wants to break through the 1.25 level however it may have lost some of its legs after quite a sprint up the past couple of weeks. Once it has a breather, perhaps a bottle of lucozade, then we’ll see it above the 1.25 level over the next few trading sessions. If you have an upcoming requirement on EUR and didn’t put market orders in yesterday at the 1.25 level I’d look to do that today in case you see a move up in the US session this
afternoon (when you’re in the pub) or the Asian session on Sunday evening (UK time).

I think we’ll see a ‘cross’ on GBP/EUR and EUR/USD by end of June. What I mean by that is we’ll see GBP/EUR and EUR/USD both trading around the 1.26 level and we’ll then see EUR/USD push lower with 1.25 in view and
GBP/EUR pushing onto 1.2650/1.27.

All the ‘exciting’ data has been released today with the aforementioned German CPI already out. Out of the UK we had PPI (MoM) and (YoY) (Input figures) -1.5% and 1.2% that came in under expectations and we also had
the output figures (MoM) and (YoY) of 0.7% and 3.3% respectively. We have PPI YoY (Apr) out of the US this afternoon however nothing else of note apart from Tier 2 data in the form of the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May). If you’re a CAD buyer or seller we have the Canadian Unemployment rate this
afternoon and Net Change in Employment (Apr) so you may see volatility on CAD
pairs this afternoon.

A Greek exit would be viewed by the markets as a negative. We could see a sharp decline in the EUR over the next couple of months and I expect markets and all asset classes to be volatile. If this scenario plays out we could see EUR/USD around the 1.25 level by end of June.

EUR/USD traded in the low 1.28s in the overnight session however there’s been a bounce this morning back to circa 1.2850 level on the back of better than expected GDP data out of the EMU with the (QoQ) (Q1) and (YoY) (Q1) coming in flat against expectations of -0.2%. The German ZEW survey – Economic Sentiment (May) came in under expectations with the current situation (May) posting a better than expected figure of 44.1 against 38.0.

So where now for EUR/USD? I still see the trend as downwards however as I alluded to yesterday we may see a push back up to the 1.29 figure in intraday trading. The driver for today on the pair, along with the usual rumour/counter rumour on Greece, will be data releases out of the US this afternoon. Will we see Dollar strength or weakness? We have the CPI figure out at 13.30 along with Retail sales that will provide volatility on the pair. If you’re a seller of EUR and buyer of USD I’d look to work a market order around 13.30 to take advantage of any deterioration in the US figures. Any rally on the pair will be short lived and I don’t see a break higher with further downside pressure likely. Target level for end of week? We’ll see a break through the 1.28 level and into the 1.27s.

GBP/EUR? After it’s sprint upwards the past few weeks, it took a couple of days rest, a few sips of Lucozade, and it seems it’s got its second wind. We smashed through the 1.25 level yesterday on EUR weakness with comments from European officials worrying markets and we saw a broad sell off. From the doldrums of last year it seems Sterling has finally decided to break free from the monotonous range bound trading. It helps it’s now seen as the haven of choice. Will this continue? I see no reason why not. Is the UK economy in great shape? Of course not. However, compared with our European neighbours we’re in rude health. (Perhaps a slight exaggeration!)

If you’re a buyer of EUR look to ‘average up’ your exposure covering off at various levels. If you think it’s going higher (as I do) great. However, as you are all too aware by now GBP has a tendency to fall quicker than it rises. Look to cover off some on a ‘Spot’ basis whilst working Market orders to take advantage of any spikes intraday or an ‘OCO’ to protect your downside risk whilst maximising your upside potential. Please contact me to discuss these options.

GBP/USD? As I mentioned last week I see range bound trading on this pair continuing between the 1.6050 level and 1.62. Nothing too exciting happening at the moment on Cable. If you’re a buyer of USD anything above 1.60 the past few years has been viewed as a good level to purchase at. As I’ve said before, I think the fundamentals in the US will improve and I expect USD strength in Q3 so we’ll see GBP/USD push well under the 1.60 figure. We were at 1.52 on this pair not so long ago!

We’ve had a lot of news out this morning including the UK trade balance that narrowed by £26M to £-8.564B instead of the expected £-8.400B so we saw cable retrace from the 1.61 level by around 30 pips. As one commentator put it this morning “So much going on, so little movement”. Markets have been relatively flat this morning so here’s hoping we get some movement in the US session. I’m sure we will.

Tomorrow is a big day in terms of data with the claimant count, average earnings, unemployment rate out of the UK followed
by CPI and trade balance out of the UK. The main event following the aforementioned is the release of the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report at 10.30am.

Look to work orders around these key events  as you can improve your rate of exchange quite dramatically. We’ll work with
you to mitigate your risk whilst taking advantage of the upside.

Written by Liam Alexander, Axia Fx

So what does this all mean for the embattled single currency? Further woes in short. I expect the downtrend to
continue on EUR/USD with a break of 1.25 imminent. We have recoveries intraday
on the pair however it fails to sustain any momentum. This morning we reached the
dizzy heights of 1.2574 and then it came back off. The fundamentals are poor
for the EUR and no matter what spin you put on it the outlook for the EUR is
further downward pressure. That beer by the pool in Europe this summer is going
to taste even better if GBP/EUR continues upwards to 1.30. The Greek tragedy
rumbles on and market attention is still tuned into Spain. A nice analogy on
Spain/Greece ‘competing’ for market headlines from a City research analyst –
“It’s a bit like watching two candidates on the Apprentice desperately trying
to save themselves in the board room from being dismissed by Lord Sugar, only
for them both to be fired”.

Poll time – Will Spain require some form of EU assistance? I’d be shocked if they don’t put it that way. The property
and banking sector is in real trouble and this morning’s release of Spanish
Retail Sales (down 9.8% in April, on a YoY basis). That’s a record fall and
puts their current predicament in some kind of context.

Expect the next 3 weeks in the run up to the Greek elections to be volatile on an intraday basis with no clear
logical direction in the markets (if ever there was one) Rumours will be out on
a daily basis and no doubt we’ll have the European officials spouting things
such as “we’re making progress”, “we’ll solve the problems”, “We’re taking
urgent action”. Really? Why are we still hearing the same comments 2 years down
the line. The ‘Grexit’ has an air of inevitably about it. Indeed, with the Euro
Championships a few weeks away a certain bookmaker is offering odds on whether
the Greek football team or the country will exit Europe first. (Greeks final
group game is on the 16^th June/Elections on the 17^th).

So what of GBP/USD? To say it’s been dull yesterday and this morning is an understatement. We’re trading
between 1.5670 and 1.5715. If you’re a buyer of USD I’d look to try and secure
1.57 if you can through a market order. I see further weakness on GBP/USD with
a break of 1.5630 the next big resistance. With the comments and likelihood of
further QE being implemented I forecast GBP pulling back to around 1.55.

Not too much out in terms of data today. We have CPI (YoY) and (MoM) (May) out of Germany and across the pond
this afternoon we have Consumer Confidence (May) and Building Permits (MoM)
(Apr) out. With our US friends back at work after memorial day yesterday
hopefully we’ll see an increase in volatility as yesterday was as flat as a
pancake.

GBP/EUR is now firmly settled above 1.24. If you need to cover off some of your EUR exposure work market orders
around the 1.25 figure as we’re struggling to break much higher. Alternatively,
look to work an OCO from 1.2450 to 1.2550. If you have any questions on this
let me know and I’ll put in place for you.

Yesterday was very flat compared to last week’s excitement with rates trading within quite a narrow range. There was very little data out yesterday which is the likeliest reason why it was so quiet with most market attention being focused on the problems with Facebook’s IPO. Today should be more volatile as there is some key data due out of the UK and the U.S. This morning at 9.30 there was key UK inflation data out with CPI and RPI figures released. The results on the whole were on expectation with the important CPI figure coming in slightly above expectation at 2.1% compared to a consensus figure of 2%. Given this we saw very little reaction in the market with Sterling holding firm at its current levels. The Bank of England will be monitoring this data closley as they track inflation and it is these figures that would likely have a bearing on any future interest rate decisions.

Christine Lagarde was speaking in London this morning in her capacity as IMF managing director after their review of the UK economy. She called on the Bank of England to consider cutting interest rates and introduce more quantitative easing to further boost the UK economy. She praised the measures taken after the financial crisis but warned of downside risks which mainly hail from the Eurozone crisis. I would be surprised if we saw any movement in the Bank of England policy until the end of the year as currently they seem content to roll along and keep policy unchanged. Also this morning we have seen Japan downgraded by Fitch from AA to A+ as their national debt rises to 240% of GBP. We should see the Yen weaken off the back of this announcement and we could see Sterling/Yen push towards 1.30. At 15.00 we have consumer confidence out of Europe and housing data of existing home sales figures out of the US. The European data is expected to be worse and we could see Euro/Dollar come down off the back of the figures.

We believe Sterling could have a drift down this week and we could see GBP/ EUR under 1.23 and GBP/USD under 1.57 by the end of the week. If you are selling Sterling it may be wise to lock your rate in now while the levels are still good especially against the Euro. The Dollar seems to be becoming popular again as a safe haven and it is likely that this will continue in the near future especially while there is uncertainty in Europe.

Markets will be looking to today’s Italian bond auction to
continue to bolster the Euro short term and will hope to see a successful
outcome. Many analysts feel that the ECB will need to start buying bonds
themselves and accumulate vast amounts of sovereign from Spain and Italy to
give the Euro a chance of long term survival. My view on the Euro still remains
the same, it’s great to be able to cross borders around Europe and not have to
change your currency, but other than that it’s a lame duck that someone should
have been put down and out of its misery a while ago.

The Euro is still down around 2.9% in value over the last
month as an average and I don’t see this short blip on Draghi’s comments
anything other than a short term confidence boost to stop the Euros rapid
demise. My expectations are for further Euro weakness over the coming months
with short term occasional strength from the Euro creeping in on the bank of
short term positive sentiment. Sterling although making strong gains against
the Euro might continue to struggle as growth looks limited in the UK in the
short term and many investors will head into the US Dollar and other currencies
as they steer towards safe havens.