As the end of February rapidly approaches the Euros resilience continues and despite the long term negative outlook for the single currency it is edging ever closer to 1.35 against the USD. Ratings agency Moody’s is still suggesting there is a high chance of Greece defaulting and this should add an air of uncertainty to the markets despite recent movements being very reactive to the short term news. Short term I feel we could continue to see some further gains for the Euro, albeit small ones but my longer term view still hasn’t changed and I do feel that Euro weakness will present itself once again.
The Japanese Yen has suffered its worst slump since 2009 as the currency powers towards its biggest monthly drop in around two years. After Japan posted a 1.48 trillion yen trade deficit last month a weaker Yen will be welcomed as exports have suffered recently due to the strong currency and last year’s earthquake and the nuclear crisis haven’t helped the situation. One point to note is that despite this recent bout of weakness in the Yen the tables could very quickly turn if the Euro crisis deepens.
Sterling has stuttered against the Euro over the last few weeks which seems a combination of a desire in the markets to buy the Euro, and the usual negativity surrounding the Bank of England’s attitude towards quantitative easing. There was substantial negativity last week over the Bank of England’s latest minutes as MPC members were split over the volume they should increase quantitative easing by. Despite this I would still be looking for Sterling to bounce back over the coming couple of weeks and a move back towards 1.20 against the Euro is definitely my pick for the first few weeks of March.
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